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<p>Refusal can mean a jail sentence, though there is the option of civilian service out of uniform too. A number of European countries also rehearse for civil emergencies - with exercises that involve ordinary citizens as well as the military. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and allies like Shoigu have repeatedly stressed the need to keep Ukraine inside Russia's sphere of influence, and to defeat what they describe as Ukraine's "Nazi regime".</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>Russia is keeping those fighter jets grounded for now and is attacking with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. Ukraine shoots most of these down with its air defense missiles. For Ukraine, the problem is it's running low on these missiles. If it runs out, then Russia could unleash its fighting planes. Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries.</p><br /><br /><h2>Sign up to our 10 Things You Need to Know Today newsletter</h2><br /><br /><p>Russia accused Ukraine immediately after the attack of organising the murder of Tatarsky. He was one of a group of prominent bloggers who have built up large online audiences as cheerleaders for Russia's war in Ukraine, while sometimes criticising its tactics. A young Russian woman was jailed for 27 years on Thursday for delivering a bomb that exploded in the hands of a pro-war military blogger last year and killed him on the spot.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>I mean, an interesting thing about the regime is, of course, that Putin is the linchpin. And that’s exactly why he designed a system like that, right? So that he would be irreplaceable because he keeps the factions together and the flow of money to the right people. So he’s the linchpin of the regime and the question is, does Putin have the repressive apparatus of a Saddam Hussein who basically killed the Kurds in the north and the Shiites in the south when he lost the Gulf War? Or is he kind of a regime that cannot fully repress any domestic opposition?</p><br /><br /><h3>After the Ukraine war, what comes next? NATO allies don't agree</h3><br /><br /><p>On Wednesday the country's defence minister, Oleksiy Resnikov, met some 50 countries in the Ukraine Defence Contact Group in Brussels to ask for more arms and ammunition. Ukrainian replacement troops go through combat training on Feb. 24 in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Many Russian nationalists, though, perceive Ukraine as a breakaway region of greater Russia. During President Putin's marathon state address on Feb. 21, he accused Western countries of attempting "to deprive Russia of these historical territories that are now called Ukraine," making war the only way to "protect the people in our historical lands." There seems to be some degree of sensitivity in Ukraine to Russia's claims it's waging a proxy war with the West over Ukraine.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>“Russia probably believes that it has the advantage for the time being and is advancing in the Donbas, albeit slowly,” Jamie Shea, a professor of strategy and security at the University of Exeter, told Al Jazeera. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has warned it could last for years, while Western intelligence agencies have reportedly said Russia’s combat capabilities could be depleted in the coming months. Despite Moscow's "shambolic start to its military campaign, most Western officials and analysts believe Russia will turn to criminal siege tactics and eventually find a way to break through Ukraine's fierce and valiant resistance," Politico's Alex Ward writes. A U.S. official tells CBS News that Russia could tactically seize Kyiv and Ukraine in four to six weeks.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>A lot of the Ukrainians I've talked to, while they appreciate the Western weapons supplies, say this is their war to fight. Apart from [https://notes.io/wf3hG situation in Ukraine] , almost all of the tens of thousands of people who have died in this war have been on Ukrainian territory. Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders?</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>And long, exhaustive fighting carries its own risks, according to Benjamin Jensen, a war gaming expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That’s because the longer conflicts last, the more they exhaust finite resources and, hence, the parties are more willing to gamble. As the war enters its second year, the spigot of military aid is still gushing.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Perhaps Italian analyst Lucio Caracciolo was the most pessimistic of all.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Maybe Russian forces get bogged down, hampered by low morale, poor logistics and inept leadership.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>There seems to be some degree of sensitivity in Ukraine to Russia's claims it's waging a proxy war with the West over Ukraine.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Russia accused Ukraine immediately after the attack of organising the murder of Tatarsky.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>As the sun rises on a seventh day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a 40-mile-long Russian military convoy appears stalled about 20 miles north of Kyiv, and the Ukrainian-held cities of Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mariupol are encircled. Russia also intensified its bombing of cities on Tuesday, including in civilian areas. Footage "of the aftermath of a missile strike that hit Kyiv's main TV tower and a nearby Holocaust memorial showed a gruesome scene of blown-out cars and buildings and several bodies on fire," The Washington Post reports.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Prominent Russian nationalist Igor Girkin was convicted by a Moscow court on Thursday of inciting extremism and jailed for four years.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Ukraine's intelligence agency said it still did not have reliable and comprehensive information about who was on board and the number of passengers.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The radar equipment of the Russian Aerospace Forces observed the launch of two Ukrainian missiles.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Weather conditions are deteriorating in Ukraine, with&nbsp;mud, freezing rain, snow and ice making offensive and reconnaissance operations challenging.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The city of Bakhmut, which has endured some of the heaviest fighting of the war, has been under Russian control for several months and, although Ukraine gained some ground in the surrounding areas over the summer, the battles continue.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul>