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Mr Putin could declare Western arms supplies to Ukrainian forces are an act of aggression that warrant retaliation. He could threaten to send troops into the Baltic states - which are members of Nato - such as Lithuania, to establish a land corridor with the Russian coastal exclave of Kaliningrad. By early summer Ukraine will be able to use US-made F16 fighter jets for the first time, which it hopes will improve its ability to counter Russian aircraft and strengthen its own air defences.

Russia's military strategy has at times been beset with logistical problems, confusing the picture of what Russia's main or immediate goals are. The analysts predicted refugee flows of 5 million to 10 million people from Ukraine to Western Europe. However it's widely expected that Russian President Vladimir Putin, loathing Ukraine's current pro-Western government and its aspirations to join the EU and NATO, wants to install a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv. Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing nature of the conflict makes it hard to gauge what will happen next in Ukraine, with both Moscow's and the West's next moves unpredictable.

How Will the Ukraine War End?

Many experts I consulted, however, advised girding for a struggle that could last a lot longer, even if the war in its more acute form resolves sooner. His message was that progress has been slow, painful and limited, though he expressed hope that might change. Mykhailo Podolyak, another close adviser to President Zelensky, agreed there were "several groups of people who want to take power in Russia". The drama over the border in Russia has hardened the view in Kyiv that Mr Putin's time as Russia's president is coming to an end.

• The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw the return of major war to the European continent.









• Ukraine will do all it can to keep pressure on the Russians there to make it untenable for the Russian navy in Sevastopol, the handful of air force bases there and their logistics base at Dzankoy.









• At the same time, election season in the United States — Ukraine’s most important backer — stands to spur arguments that a war in Europe of unknown duration is a costly nuisance for America.









• Russia will shift towards a more defensive posture, abandoning its dreams of a swift conquest of the Mariinsky Palace in Kyiv.

The fierce determination of the Ukrainian people up to this point suggests that this will not occur any time soon. To a lesser extent, Putin is dependent on the support of the general population. The public is bearing the costs of war in the form of inflation, economic decline and battlefield deaths. This suggests that the two sides will have difficulty ever resolving the information problem. When this happens, countries often end up fighting wars of attrition that last until one side gives up. It was largely apparent that Russia’s army was and is far superior to Ukraine’s in terms of stockpiles of weapons and number of personnel.

Ukraine says corrupt officials stole $40 million of weapons money

But they note it's crucial for Ukraine to be able to show at least some gains in order to maintain Western support for the war into 2024 — and perhaps beyond. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.

European countries have largely outsourced much of their military capacity and thinking on strategy and security to the States through NATO. Phillips P OBrien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, wrote in an analysis piece that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could see the US "neuter" the Western military alliance. https://houmann-monroe-2.federatedjournals.com/is-russia-invading-ukraine-and-what-will-happen-next-ukraine said Ukraine was behind the strike on the eastern Ukrainian city, which is currently under Russian occupation. Many in the international community feared that the conflict could spread outside of Ukraine’s borders. Andrew Cottey, a professor in the Department of Government and Politics at University College Cork, gave Euronews three possible outcomes for the war.

Want to support the people in Ukraine? Here's how you can help

Yet it would be so much more likely than the present one to renounce its post-invasion territorial gains, though perhaps not Russian-majority Crimea, which, in the era of the Soviet Union, was part of the Russian republic until, in 1954, it was transferred to the Ukrainian republic by fiat. Ever since the war began, commentators and Western leaders, including President Biden, have intimated that it should produce, if not “regime change” in Russia, then Putin’s departure. And there have been no shortage of predictions that the invasion will indeed prove Putin’s death knell. There’s no evidence, however, that the war has turned his country’s political and military elite against him or any sign of mass disaffection that could threaten the state.

“Even technologically advanced, wealthy states in the Middle East eventually reached a point where they’re lobbing missiles at civilian cities, openly using chemical weapons and fighting in waves — just people rushing across the field getting shot at,” Jensen said. That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also recently authorized supplying infantry fighting vehicles to help push Russian forces out of occupied Ukraine. Senior officials from around 40 countries, including China, and India, held talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, at the weekend with the aim of agreeing on key principles that could underline a future settlement of the war. Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders? President Putin could seek to regain more parts of Russia's former empire by sending troops into ex-Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia, that are not part of Nato.

• President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control.









• Yet the Army is already looking at how it might create a citizens' army.









• Little wonder, perhaps, that Putin assumed his troops would take the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, within weeks, at most.

Polls in Ukraine show that the public overwhelmingly rejects concessions to Russia. “Essentially once the West made a decision that Ukraine is important … it had to support them to the end, and that means the Ukrainians are the ones who will decide when they’re going to stop,” he said. The war and Western sanctions have damaged Russia’s society and economy, but Moscow has blunted the worst effects and is unlikely to be left so weak as to be unable to pursue the war.

• Wars require the tacit approval and support of those on the home front.









• How long the fighting will last and the form it takes depends on the extent and type of the problem.









• At different times in this conflict Russia has resembled Iran’s position, and Ukraine has mirrored Iraq’s in that war — if only incompletely — said Jeremy Morris, professor of global studies at Aarhus University in Denmark.

These are the sort of outcomes that could follow on from a decisive Russian military victory. Without such a victory, the Kremlin might revert to more modest goals – but even in this case Ukraine is fully aware of the danger. Could its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, accept a permanent Russian presence in Donbas? Not explicitly, and certainly not in the form of a codified peace deal. He has spoken about a negotiated settlement on the status of Donetsk and Luhansk, but that is an old concession that goes back to the origins of the current crisis in 2014. Another road to victory is to simply run down the clock, with Russia working under the assumption that, even if the west keeps supplying Ukraine with arms, Kyiv’s army might run out of military personnel.

One ex senior minister suggested to me that there was a generational divide between those who had lived with the threat of the Cold War era, and those who had not. The former minister, currently a serving Conservative MP, pointed out that the prime minister grew up without that existential threat. Yet the Army is already looking at how it might create a citizens' army. One Whitehall source told the Times that the training of Ukrainian civilians on UK soil could act as a rehearsal for rapid Army expansion. Cuts have already seen the size of the British Army fall from more than 100,000 in 2010 to around 73,000 now. Gen Sanders said that within the next three years the British Army needed to be 120,000 strong with the addition of reserves.

Just ask Austria's Archduke Franz Ferdinand, whose improbable assassination in Sarajevo sparked World War I. As a result, Russia essentially stopped flying fighter jets over Ukraine. Numbers are hard to come by, but Russia had an estimated 1,500 fighter jets before the war began and still has the vast majority of them, probably 1,400 or more. After Russia first invaded in 2014, the U.S. military stepped up training for the Ukrainian military in western Ukraine. U.S. trainers continued working in Ukraine right up until the full-scale Russian invasion a year ago. Many Russian nationalists, though, perceive Ukraine as a breakaway region of greater Russia.