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Although for a while Prigozhin carried on with his affairs in Russia as if nothing untoward had happened, and even at one point met with his old chum Putin again, it was hard to believe that he would survive such a challenge and so it proved. And that has direct consequences for the future of the war in Ukraine. But to analysts, like Morris, the prospect of Putin being removed is extremely unlikely — and the chances that whoever replaces him will be less hawkish are even more remote. “There isn’t really any source of alternative power to coalesce around while Putin is healthy and alive,” said Morris. “Essentially once the West made a decision that Ukraine is important … it had to support them to the end, and that means the Ukrainians are the ones who will decide when they’re going to stop,” he said. The US and its allies were quick to provide aid that has been vital to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

There is no scope for anything but more war until the fortunes of those new Russian forces are settled on the battlefield. For 2023, the key determinant will be the fate of Russia's spring offensive. Putin had admitted that about 50,000 of the newly mobilised troops are already at the front; the other 250,000 of those just mobilised are training for next year.

Ukraine: Lasting toll of war, ‘beyond measure’, Security Council hears

Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries. The vehicles carry the hope of enabling battlefield wins for Ukrainian forces that will lead to some kind of war-ending scenario — if the weapons arrive in time. And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control. Maybe Russia cannot provide enough troops to cover such a vast country. Ukraine's defensive forces transform into an effective insurgency, well-motivated and supported by local populations. And then, perhaps after many years, with maybe new leadership in Moscow, Russian forces eventually leave Ukraine, bowed and bloodied, just as their predecessors left Afghanistan in 1989 after a decade fighting Islamist insurgents.

• Despite desperate pleas from Kyiv for the West to come to its aid, Nato has categorically ruled out sending troops to Ukraine.









• On Feb. 24, 2022, Russian forces attacked Ukraine without frozen ground to support their armored vehicles, which meant they had to stick to roads, where they stood out as easy targets.









• "I think the danger for Ukrainians is if they really do end up with a stalemate, where they've gained very, very little territory where a lot of the equipment supplied by the West has been written off with Ukrainians having suffered very significant casualties," Shea said.









• Kusti Salm, the permanent secretary at Estonia's Ministry of Defence, is one of those pushing for more military assistance to Ukraine.

He will have been able to see whether or not the EU and the US have sorted out their funding packages. According to https://ambitious-camel-g3r4ks.mystrikingly.com/blog/why-do-so-many-russians-say-they-support-the-war-in-ukraine-7a29098c-d3b5-4c98-82f4-2f7617e3afd1 , encouraged by the Biden administration, this is the shift in posture currently underway, bolstering air defences, strengthening positions in eastern Ukraine, and making it harder for Russian forces to attack from Belarus. The suggestion is that this is to prepare for eventual negotiations, although the main need is simply for Ukraine to show that it can play a long game. Ukraine is more than holding its own, but it wanted to have liberated another chunk of its territory during 2023 and that has not happened.

Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia

"Three decades of peace is sadly not the norm. In dealing with a tyrant we need to escalate our planning." If Russia's invasion turns into a long-term occupation of Ukraine then it is conceivable that Western nations may well support a Ukrainian insurgency, just as the US supported the Afghan mujahideen in the 1980s. This is not without risk, as Putin is likely to retaliate in some form.

The rest, together with the forces freed for action after Kherson withdrawal, gives the Russians an opportunity to launch an offensive. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes. And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it.

One key question that could determine the war’s end game is how long Ukraine’s backers can keep up their arms donations to Kyiv. It took 15 votes for McCarthy to secure the position, after which he appointed three Republicans who oppose Ukraine aid — Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Ralph Norman of South Carolina and Chip Roy of Texas — to the Rules Committee, which controls legislation and debate on the House floor. He agreed to a House rules change that would allow any member to initiate a vote to remove him as speaker, forcing him to tread carefully even on issues that enjoy majority Republican support — such as Ukraine assistance.

• Army War College who co-authored a study that anticipated Putin’s Ukraine invasion years before it happened.









• Having to rely on Donald Trump both winning the November US election (the next major landmark event) and then doing what he wants is not wholly comfortable.









• The White House and Pentagon publicly insist there is no official change in administration policy — that they still support Ukraine’s aim of forcing Russia’s military completely out of the country.

But it has not defined what it means, in this context, for the war to be “over.” Must there be a formal peace treaty? Must there be a period of months or years in which Russia does not fire a single shell into Ukraine? Tying Ukrainian NATO membership to such conditions would give Putin another incentive never to meet them.

• America has rallied military donations from more than 40 other countries.









• These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes.









• Senior Ukrainians are still doing their best to manage expectations about the summer offensive.









• At different times in this conflict Russia has resembled Iran’s position, and Ukraine has mirrored Iraq’s in that war — if only incompletely — said Jeremy Morris, professor of global studies at Aarhus University in Denmark.









• The next key date for Putin is the presidential election on 17 March.

He said that “Ukraine will be fighting until it gains all its territory back.” But he also seemed to leave himself space for compromise. Talks with Russia, he said, could begin once it withdraws to the line of February 24th. This would bear similarities to the situation after the initial Russian incursions into Ukraine in 2014 – but this time the west would be left facing an implacable, large hostile actor in Moscow. Ukraine, meanwhile, would need years of western support to ensure its eastern border remains stable. Depending on how long the war lasts, it remains far from certain whether lawmakers will keep funding Ukraine aid packages.