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I think that if Zelenskyy made a deal which gave up, you know, the four annexed areas. I think he might also be removed from office, but he’s not gonna be killed, because he is a war hero and he has a lot of credit and it’s very different. Ukrainians also make a calculation it’s just worth the cost. And the Russians are trying to influence that calculation.

• "The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says.









• By October 2022, the picture had changed dramatically and having failed to take Kyiv, Russia withdrew completely from the north.









• Compared with this time last year, Vladimir Putin is stronger, politically more than militarily.









• For Shea, there are two likely scenarios going forward.









• Perhaps more likely is that this develops into a protracted war.









• “Today, tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, they will throw in all the reserves they have … Because there are so many of them there already, they’re at critical mass,” Haidai told Ukrainian television.

As some experts have suggested, Putin has the upper hand in being able to escalate the war. In fact, the longer the fighting lasts, the more likely it is that Western support will soften, according to Loukopoulos. “For the time being, political support for Ukraine remains strong in the US and Europe, and the EU can hardly abandon a country to which it has just granted EU candidate status,” Shea said.

Kherson's underground resistance: How ordinary people fought Russia from the shadows

The undersecretary of state for political affairs, Victoria Nuland, told the Senate in January the Biden administration still expects the $45 billion Ukraine aid package Congress passed in December to last through the end of this fiscal year. But the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, Celeste Wallander, warned at the hearing that the current funding level “does not preclude” the administration from needing to request more assistance before the end of September. Since the counteroffensive was launched in June, only a handful of villages have been recaptured.

• President Zelensky issued a plea to make Ukraine a member of the European Union, whilst the cities of Kharkiv, Kherson and Mariupol were encircled by Russian forces.









• I think that if Zelenskyy made a deal which gave up, you know, the four annexed areas.









• This is an example that you see occurring over and over again.









• Something very different about the first world war, in that very Crown Council, these leaders already recognised that in case of failure there would be a domestic revolution and they could not tolerate that possibility and therefore kept fighting.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox. For all the anxieties about self-inflicted wounds and the hesitation surrounding the supply of weapons, the Western consensus over Ukraine remains remarkably intact. "He [Putin] is probably counting on US and EU resolve to weaken," she told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee, "as food shortages, inflation and energy prices get worse." Austria's chancellor, Karl Nehammer, said a gas embargo "will not be an issue in the next sanctions package". The former Prime Minister and President Dmitry Medvedev called that statement "rational." But the US decision announced on Wednesday to send a more advanced rocket system to Ukraine was described by the Kremlin as "adding fuel to the fire".

Russia and Ukraine’s war over grain

Russian forces were bombarding Kharkiv, and they had taken territory in the east and south as far as Kherson, and surrounded the port city of Mariupol. The current situation also suggests a prolonged fight, given the significant loss of territory Ukraine has suffered in recent weeks in the east – half of the Donetsk region and almost all of the Luhansk region – alongside Russia’s early gains in the south. Some analysts say Kyiv would lack leverage if it entered peace negotiations now, with the result likely being “peace” as dictated exclusively by Moscow. As the sun rises on a seventh day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a 40-mile-long Russian military convoy appears stalled about 20 miles north of Kyiv, and the Ukrainian-held cities of Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mariupol are encircled.

• Explosions were set off in cities and military sites, airports, and airbases were seized.









• Moscow had expected Russian forces to take key cities including the capital Kyiv within the first few days of the invasion.









• And in addition, know the attitude and behaviour of potential allies of either side.









• Hein Goemans Going back to the analogy of the first world war one more time, what really changed attitudes in Germany was the collapse of Bulgaria and Austro-Hungary suing for peace.

The support of the west is crucial, but it is not on behalf of the direct interests of the United States and the west. It is certainly on behalf of the indirect interest of the security architecture of Europe and the whole world. But the people are doing the fighting and the dying, and whose interests are most directly at stake are the Ukrainians. But there is https://diigo.com/0vdcbv -off — most of them end relatively quickly. For the last few months Russian and Ukrainian forces have battled for control of territory in the country's east - with Moscow making slow advances in recent weeks.

What are the Ukrainian refugees who fled their country doing now? Are they able to get jobs in their host countries? — Laurel

He says Europe is rich enough to do so if it has the political will, pointing to a recent report from the Estonian Ministry of Defence suggesting that committing 0.25% of GDP annually towards Ukraine would provide "more than sufficient resources". Even though the end of the war is not yet in sight, he says he can envision a scenario for which a precedent exists. For Shea, there are two likely scenarios going forward. The Week is part of Future plc, an international media group and leading digital publisher.

• And on the other hand is the west, which is telling the Russians this war is gonna be too costly because we have sanctions on you and your complete economy will implode.









• You can’t kill just Ukrainians and no Russians and therefore swing the tide on the battlefield.









• Mr Putin is widely believe to have miscalculated the scale of the Ukrainian resistance.









• Ukraine, Jensen suggested, might try a spectacular special operation to assassinate a Kremlin official, or Russia could decide to use — or simply test — nuclear weapons.

But another McCarthy concession — a procedure allowing 218 members to force a House floor vote on any bill — could present an opportunity for pro-Ukraine Republicans and Democrats to pass additional funding for Kyiv. He agreed to a House rules change that would allow any member to initiate a vote to remove him as speaker, forcing him to tread carefully even on issues that enjoy majority Republican support — such as Ukraine assistance. For its part, the Biden administration has started deliberations around the thorny question of whether helping Ukraine should entail retaking Crimea, which Russia seized and then annexed in 2014. Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, expects the war to end at the negotiating table, but said serious diplomacy hasn’t begun because Putin is still clinging to “maximalist” goals. An inability to do so could foster economic discontent capable of turning public opinion against the war, Lichfield told Defense News. Moscow has proved resourceful when it comes to building autonomy into critical goods, Lichfield explained.