When-will-the-RussiaUkraine-war-end-Experts-offer-their-predictions-i

Putin’s presidency began with the second Chechen war in 1999, when separatist rebels sought independence from Russia. The war, which ended with the Chechen capital razed to the ground and Chechen resistance largely stamped out, left a lasting imprint on Putin’s approach to regions seeking to break away from Russian influence, according to analysts. Unlike in the case of Serbia, experts do not foresee a scenario in which the US-led Western alliance would actively attack Russia. https://barlow-larsen.blogbright.net/army-chief-says-people-of-uk-are-prewar-generation-who-must-be-ready-to-fight-russia-military-1707857491 and Western sanctions have damaged Russia’s society and economy, but Moscow has blunted the worst effects and is unlikely to be left so weak as to be unable to pursue the war. Russia’s economy contracted by only a little more than 2 percent last year – far less than expected.

• It has brought the transatlantic alliance together, even if it is propelling European countries to build more independent capabilities as well, which constitutes a diplomatic win for the Biden administration.









• But Ukraine joining NATO could itself be how the war ends, consistent with Biden’s current policy — and at a time and on terms set by Ukraine and its allies, not by Russia.









• Pushilin also claimed Ukraine had used cluster munitions in the strike, which the Kremlin described as a terrorist attack.









• Russia's defence budget has tripled since 2021 and will consume 30% of government spending next year.

The EU's decision to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova is more than just symbolic. It implicitly means continued backing for Kyiv, as a future in the EU for Ukraine would be impossible with a full-blown victory for Russia. The US defence aid package is held hostage by what President Biden rightly labelled "petty politics" in Washington. And the future of the EU's economic aid is seemingly dependent on Hungary's incongruous stance. Compared with this time last year, Vladimir Putin is stronger, politically more than militarily. We asked three military analysts how they think events may unfold in the coming 12 months.

Ukraine fears that the war will end in a divided country, like North and South Korea

Analysts say conquering pieces of Ukraine wouldn't necessarily mean an end to the fighting. "If the Russian spring offensive was successful … they could possibly take all of the area west and [to] the east of the Dnieper River, and then make a puppet state out of what's left of Ukraine," Professor Clarke added. Russian nationalist voices have already expressed skepticism in Russia's ability to launch a successful offensive, but Ukraine's defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, says Moscow could "try something" to mark the anniversary of its initial invasion. The Russian side hasn't escalated as much as it can, analysts say, and another offensive aligns with Mr Putin's strategy to double down when backed into a corner. US President Joe Biden's recent unannounced trip to Ukraine was also intended to rally NATO support for Ukraine, after insisting there would be no backing down from what he's portrayed as a global struggle between democracy and autocracy. If Ukraine manages to clear some of those hurdles, its forces could be in a position by July to retake large portions of land, according to the Royal United Services Institute's former director, Professor Michael Clarke.

• Mr Putin has already annexed the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia through so-called referendums after pulling back troops to regroup in eastern Ukraine.









• Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, expects the war to end at the negotiating table, but said serious diplomacy hasn’t begun because Putin is still clinging to “maximalist” goals.









• The U.S. Congress approved four separate spending bills for Ukraine in the past year totaling $112 billion.









• Russia achieves a breakthrough in the east either very soon, before Ukraine gets its western weaponry in place in a few weeks, or after a Ukrainian counteroffensive fails.

Ukraine will probably try to exploit the success it has had in re-establishing its control over the western Black Sea and its vital trade corridor to the Bosphorus. The Interfax-Ukraine news agency, citing unnamed sources, said the fire was the result of a special operation carried out by Ukraine's security services. Novatek said on Sunday it had been forced to suspend some operations at the huge Baltic Sea fuel export terminal and "technological process" at the complex due to a fire, started by what Ukrainian media said was a drone attack. Russia claims Donetsk in eastern Ukraine as its own territory, having unilaterally annexed the region in late 2022. "The Kyiv regime continues to show its bestial face and strikes at civilians," Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters Monday. The number of people killed or injured in a missile strike on a market in Donetsk city on Sunday has risen, a Russian-installed official said Monday.

The state of the war

Just ask Austria's Archduke Franz Ferdinand, whose improbable assassination in Sarajevo sparked World War I. NATO does not want a full-scale war in Europe, and Russian President Vladimir Putin knows he would lose a conflict with a 30-member military alliance led by the Americans. As a result, Russia essentially stopped flying fighter jets over Ukraine. Numbers are hard to come by, but Russia had an estimated 1,500 fighter jets before the war began and still has the vast majority of them, probably 1,400 or more. After Russia first invaded in 2014, the U.S. military stepped up training for the Ukrainian military in western Ukraine.

The fourth option – the sole positive one – contemplates Ukraine winning the war and expelling the Russians from its territory. In a decisive offensive in the north-east, Ukraine drove back Russian forces. It claims to have regained 3,000 square kilometres (1,158 sq miles) of territory around the city of Kharkiv alone.

And they said winning will depend on a Congress with the resolve to ensure continued support to Ukraine. But even then, the very concept of victory may be inaccurate, they warned. At some point, Ukraine will have to decide if there's a military solution to the conflict or if it has to look for another way out without conceding any kind of defeat, Barrons said. One way to do that is with an armistice, a temporary agreement to cease military operations, but one that does not conclude the war decisively. Defense experts say it's unlikely the counteroffensive will see any breakthroughs this year.

• The nonaligned movement would be fueled in part by the developing world’s growing plight, first triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.









• A year ago, most everyone expected Russia to dominate the skies with its much larger and more modern air force.









• While the largest war in Europe since 1945 seems to have entered an attritional phase, there are several ways the conflict could play out.









• The Russian military, though battered and demoralized, has remained resilient, even against advanced Western weapons and tactics.

The first possibility establishes that Russian domination could lead to a world war if the invading country were to attack another Black Sea nation. The second option indicates that – after Ukraine is forced to agree to a ceasefire by ceding territory – widespread anger will bring ultranationalist groups to power and turn the country into an autocracy. The third option foresees Ukraine disintegrating into multiple autonomous regions.

That objective has coexisted with an expectation that Putin’s government will probably never stop fighting, as losing the war could spell the end to his political power. Under Article 5 of the military alliance's charter, an attack on one member is an attack on all. But Mr Putin might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership. If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further.

• In theory, they could threaten to curtail support if they grow weary of the war or if Ukraine, encouraged by its military advances, crosses a threshold that could spark an escalation unacceptable to the West.









• This lack of Russian progress is particularly telling in the case of Bakhmut, a small city in Donbas, that has been relentlessly attacked by regular and irregular Russian forces for months, but has been ably defended and thus remains firmly in Ukrainian hands.









• The US has sent billions in crucial weaponry to help Kyiv fend off Russian attacks.









• Also, while a ceasefire is desirable, it isn’t absolutely necessary to make progress on substantive issues, such as the status of the Donbas and Crimea.









• This would be a defensive pact, but not a commitment to take direct part in any future offensive operations Ukraine might choose to undertake.

Several specialised non-governmental organisations have also been created, like the Geneva-based Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue and the Helsinki-based Crisis Management Initiative. There have been many developments in the field of peace mediation over the past decades. The United Nations, the African Union and other international organisations have set up mediation teams. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is unlikely to be resolved on the battlefield. An end to the bloodshed and destruction of Ukraine can be negotiated, but such negotiations need to be mediated carefully.

But the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, Celeste Wallander, warned at the hearing that the current funding level “does not preclude” the administration from needing to request more assistance before the end of September. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations. But it may not be implausible if the people who have benefited from Mr Putin no longer believe he can defend their interests.