Ukraine-war-could-last-for-years-warns-Nato-chief-s — различия между версиями

Текущая версия на 07:06, 16 апреля 2024

Russia is keeping those fighter jets grounded for now and is attacking with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. Ukraine shoots most of these down with its air defense missiles. For Ukraine, the problem is it's running low on these missiles. If it runs out, then Russia could unleash its fighting planes.

• Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker told CNBC he believes American and EU aid packages for Ukraine will be approved come January, saying he believed this funding would tide Ukraine over for another year, militarily.









• Russian Communist supporters hold flags including one of the Soviet Union, as they take part in a rally next to the Karl Marx monument, marking the "Defender of the Fatherland Day," the former "Day of the Soviet Army", in downtown Moscow on Feb. 23.









• A raft of Western sanctions is squeezing the Russian economy, undermining Moscow’s power and influence on an international level but Putin himself seems unflinching.









• He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it.









• "You only have to look at the struggle to get the oil embargo," says Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, referring to the tortured weeks of negotiation that resulted in this week's partial EU embargo on Russian oil.

He insisted after his visit that Ukraine would not cede any of the occupied territories in the south of the country to Russia, which occupies the bulk of the country’s coastal areas. Johnson, writing in the Sunday Times, said the supply of weapons had to continue, and that it would be necessary to “preserve the viability of the Ukrainian state” by providing financial support “to pay wages, run schools, deliver aid and begin reconstruction”. “Ukrainian forces have likely suffered desertions in recent weeks. However, Russian morale highly likely remains especially troubled.

When will the war in Ukraine end?

The EU's decision to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova is more than just symbolic. It implicitly means continued backing for Kyiv, as a future in the EU for Ukraine would be impossible with a full-blown victory for Russia. The US defence aid package is held hostage by what President Biden rightly labelled "petty politics" in Washington. And the future of the EU's economic aid is seemingly dependent on Hungary's incongruous stance.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw the return of major war to the European continent. https://anotepad.com/notes/q96br83b of the conflict in 2023 marked the fact that industrial-age warfare had returned too. To indicate which parts of Ukraine are under control by Russian troops we are using daily assessments published by the Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project. To show key areas where advances are taking place we are also using updates from the UK Ministry of Defence and BBC research.

Russia's economy is still working but sanctions are starting to have an effect

But if the west decides they’re not gonna support Ukraine fully anymore, then Ukraine is in a really tough spot and they’ll have to dramatically lower aims. There’s no way they’re gonna push back Russia to the 1991 borders and they may have to accept the four annexed areas as part of Russia forever. "Even if the costs are high, not only for military support, also because of rising energy and food prices." All of this, of course, assumes that Russia’s war doesn’t escalate beyond Ukraine.

And long, exhaustive fighting carries its own risks, according to Benjamin Jensen, a war gaming expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That’s because the longer conflicts last, the more they exhaust finite resources and, hence, the parties are more willing to gamble. Defense News spoke with national security analysts, lawmakers and retired officials, asking each how the conflict could end.

Ukraine series: how long will the war last?

And that may take longer to fight, but the whole world will mobilise against him, support the Ukrainians, and there’s no way he’s gonna win. The only way I can see Putin use nuclear weapons goes back to this story that I told earlier about the western allies and particularly the people in Germany, who are very, very skittish about nuclear weapons. So that’s the only strategy that I can see Putin really using nuclear weapons. This would be hugely dangerous and risk war with Nato. Under Article 5 of the military alliance's charter, an attack on one member is an attack on all.

And the question you gotta ask yourself is why that is. Domestic politics and they still have plans and ideas and you know, they think they can teach Ukrainians some new information or hope that the west will fall apart. Hein Goemans I mean, some people are trying to pitch this as, oh, the United States versus Russia, which is a big mistake.

The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington told Defense News that Ukraine would not strike Russian territory with longer-range weapons pledged by the United States. After imposing sanctions and export controls, Lichfield expects the West’s latest economic pressure point — oil price caps — to yield results because the Russian economy is so tightly linked to the energy market. “It would have to get pretty bad for the Russians to get there,” he said, adding that there’s no way of knowing how many reserves the government stashed away after years of fat checks from energy sales. And the near-total control of information by the government is making dissent difficult.

NATO does not want a full-scale war in Europe, and Russian President Vladimir Putin knows he would lose a conflict with a 30-member military alliance led by the Americans. I wrote about this recently, noting that we're seeing air battles daily, but pilots are rarely involved. It's perhaps the only thing more complicated than sanctions enforcement, and this question touches on both. Ukrainian replacement troops go through combat training on Feb. 24 in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

• And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus.









• In response, companies on both sides of the Atlantic announced plans to restart production lines for artillery shells and other weapons considered somewhat arcane until recently.









• The West must prepare to continue supporting Ukraine in a war lasting for years, Nato's chief has warned.