What-history-shows-How-will-the-war-in-Ukraine-end-RussiaUkraine-war-y — различия между версиями

Текущая версия на 10:53, 20 апреля 2024

One year into the conflict, here are some of your questions about the war answered. Britain is not the only country to be punishing Russia with sanctions - the US has gone further and Germany, for example, has now postponed giving the green light to the massive Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia - but the UK is in the forefront of pushing for penalties. Often described as coldly calculating, like the chess player and judo fighter that he is, his speech on Monday resembled more that of an angry dictator than a shrewd strategist. Let's not forget that Russia and America have, between them, over 8,000 deployable nuclear warheads so the stakes here are stratospherically high.

Instead, over the past year Ukrainian forces have consistently and successfully pushed back the invading troops. As long as there is no direct conflict between Russia and Nato then there is no reason for this crisis, bad as it is, to descend into a full-scale world war. They are feeling distinctly nervous that Russian forces might not stop at Ukraine and instead use some pretext to "come to the aid" of the ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltics and invade.

Could the fighting spread to other countries?

However, what was not apparent to Russia until the fighting began is that the Ukrainian people are far more willing to fight than they anticipated. According to this approach, wars will end when the problem that caused the war is resolved by fighting on the battlefield. How long the fighting will last and the form it takes depends on the extent and type of the problem. When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, I was easing my way into a new job and in the throes of the teaching year. https://rentry.co/w6auux4c spend most of my day poring over multiple newspapers, magazines, blogs, and the Twitter feeds of various military mavens, a few of whom have been catapulted by the war from obscurity to a modicum of fame.

• For a war that has defied expectations, those questions might seem impossible to answer.









• Yet it would be so much more likely than the present one to renounce its post-invasion territorial gains, though perhaps not Russian-majority Crimea, which, in the era of the Soviet Union, was part of the Russian republic until, in 1954, it was transferred to the Ukrainian republic by fiat.









• The reason why this is called “imperial overreach” is because a common thing that happens with a lot of empire endeavors is you overextend yourself and create an ungovernable entity.









• Rather than going to war, which is very costly, competing states prefer to settle these disagreements peacefully.

The first - which would be the most optimistic from Kyiv’s perspective - is that Ukrainian forces successfully move towards Mariupol on the Black Sea coast, cutting off Russian forces from the southern part of the country. The move “would also put Crimea at risk and then potentially we could see a collapse of Russian forces and effectively Ukraine could win,” he said. There was, for example, a thread of continuity between the first and second world wars. To be sure, a lot happened in the intervening years that could have changed the direction of what followed.

Why is the Russian air force not more involved in the war? I rarely see any news regarding Russian strikes from the air. — Matt

In the United States, he noted, everything from industrial policy to diplomatic and military strategy to domestic politics similarly will need to be refashioned for this new conflict. One year ago, Russia launched a war that many never expected it to wage and assumed it would quickly win against a cowed Ukraine and its allies. For a war that has defied expectations, those questions might seem impossible to answer.

• Ukraine, Jensen suggested, might try a spectacular special operation to assassinate a Kremlin official, or Russia could decide to use — or simply test — nuclear weapons.









• The invaders’ key advantage is the number of troops available – about 300,000, almost all of whom are already committed to Ukraine.









• Andrew Cottey, a professor in the Department of Government and Politics at University College Cork, gave Euronews three possible outcomes for the war.









• Just ask Austria's Archduke Franz Ferdinand, whose improbable assassination in Sarajevo sparked World War I.









• A protracted and costly World War I helped usher in the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917.

Almost three months on, the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction. Russia has suffered a series of significant military setbacks that make any victory for them look a much more distant and difficult prospect – but a swift win for Ukraine doesn’t look likely either. As Ukrainian forces continued to hold off Russian advances on Kyiv, President Biden traveled to Brussels on Wednesday for an emergency meeting with other NATO leaders to discuss how to respond to Russia’s assault and help the 3 million Ukrainians who have fled the country.

How Will the Ukraine War End?

In this scenario, the strategists noted, Russia would realize it has "once again fought an unwinnable war, the proverbial quagmire that has trapped many powerful states through history." There's of course the possibility that a Ukrainian fightback doesn't pose a significant challenge to Russian forces that remain in Ukraine — after all, thousands of fighters are civilians who taken up arms and have been hastily trained. There are many questions over who could lead a loyalist regime in Ukraine, one that could resemble that of Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko.

They also promised to provide assistance to Ukraine if it "should become a victim of an act of aggression". Most of its people do not want their country to become part of Russia. It may not be a member of the European Union or Nato, but it is an ally of European powers and has a pro-Western government. But his remark lives on as a challenge to all policymakers thinking about whether to engage diplomatically - and even militarily - in a potential conflict between two foreign countries. The former Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain has long been criticised for describing Germany's attempted annexation of Czechoslovakia in 1938 as "a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing".

• “There is a real problem here in that we may be over-encouraged by Ukraine’s early successes in counterattacking last year,” said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank.









• Democrats in Congress overwhelmingly support aid for Ukraine, and most Republicans do as well.









• Europe’s largest nuclear plant was shelled over the weekend, and for days Ukraine and Russia have blamed each other.









• Mr Danilov said they included security forces, officials and representatives of Russia's oligarchs, who believe that Mr Putin's decision to launch a full invasion of Ukraine in February last year has been a personal disaster for them as well as a threat to Russia.