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Many analysts say Beijing in particular is looking on as it formulates its own plans to reunify Taiwan with mainland China. The fear is that if Russia is allowed to invade Ukraine unresisted, that might act as a signal to other leaders that the days of Western powers intervening in other conflicts are over. Western powers are acutely aware this crisis is being closely watched by the rest of the world.

• For decades the European Union has heavily relied on Russia's oil and gas, generating money and cash for Russia.









• He called for the government to halt a planned National Insurance increase in April.









• It's highly likely the election will see him start a new six-year term, which - if completed - would make him Russia's longest-serving ruler since the 18th century.









• Since then, Ukraine's military has been locked in a war with Russian-backed rebels in eastern areas near Russia's borders.









• Some migrants might stay in neighbouring Poland and eastern European countries, but some might head further west and eventually end up in the UK.

The Bank of England raised interest rates again in March to try and moderate rising prices. The CEBR predicts that inflation will now peak at 8.7% next quarter and then stay twice as high as expected until the second half of 2023. This means a shopping basket that cost £20 a year ago will cost almost £22 in the next few months. He called for the government to halt a planned National Insurance increase in April. "All sectors grew in January with some industries that were hit particularly hard in December now performing well." All in all, the economy was on course to maintain its return to normal after the pandemic.

Potential energy disruption

In a joint news conference with Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, Mr Johnson said Europe faced its biggest security crisis in decades. Ben Wallace's trip to Moscow does not signal any significant shift in the balance of this crisis. But his meeting with Russian defence chiefs does seem to have been a calmer affair than Thursday's frosty exchanges between the foreign ministers, Liz Truss and Sergei Lavrov. The current tensions come eight years after Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula.

“A humanitarian crisis is unfolding before our eyes, leaving thousands dead, forcing millions of refugees to flee their homes and threatening an economic recovery that was under way after two years of the pandemic,” she said. But the senior Western intelligence official warned that "military options are highly likely on the table in the Kremlin" if Russia's demands are not satisfied. In response to the invasion, the geopolitical risk index developed by the US Federal Reserve spiked to the highest level since the start of the Iraq war in 2003. But he adds that this disruption is "nothing" compared to the ripple effect from rising energy prices. Mr McFadden also said the government "must look again at Labour's proposal for a one-off windfall tax on oil and gas producers to cut household energy bills by up to £600". The UK government is providing a range of economic, humanitarian and defensive military assistance to Ukraine, and is imposing additional sanctions on Russia and Belarus.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demands that the UK rewrite its foreign policy

The government's independent advisory Climate Change Committee recently warned that any new North Sea projects will take an average of 28 years to start producing oil and gas. The ‘global’ in Britain was reflected in an ambition to more deeply engage in the Indo-Pacific, to adapt to China’s growing power and climate and global health objectives. Another risk is that Sunak’s can-kicking over budgets postpones the serious investment needed in military supplies. Western materiel and equipment are being depleted at a rapid rate on the battlefields of Ukraine, leading to concerns that neither government nor industry have moved to the war-footing required for resupply. Serious discussion of defence spending, procurement and supply will be a new reality for the government for years to come. The Russian invasion displaced Ukrainians who, fleeing the conflict, became refugees in need of accommodation and support.

• Ben Wallace's trip to Moscow does not signal any significant shift in the balance of this crisis.









• As well as driving up costs for energy intensive companies, western sanctions on Russia could hit the availability of materials used in the aerospace, automotive and electronics industries.









• Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency.









• Grain prices have also jumped as both Russia and Ukraine are major global producers, particularly of wheat.









• Mr McFadden also said the government "must look again at Labour's proposal for a one-off windfall tax on oil and gas producers to cut household energy bills by up to £600".

The economic consequences of the Ukraine invasion are pushing both inflation and growth in the wrong direction. Russia's invasion of Ukraine means significant uncertainty for the UK economy, the chancellor has warned. We won't know for some time how badly Ukraine's landscape, nature and climate action will be impacted by the war. Many experts say it is too soon to tell how Russia's invasion will affect its participation in climate diplomacy and international action, such as at the next yearly United Nations climate talks, COP27, in Egypt in November. https://anotepad.com/notes/c3bxadxj of around 18 Conservative MPs want the UK to increase its own fossil fuel supply by boosting North Sea fossil fuel production and lift the fracking moratorium.

In talks with Sergei Shogiu, Mr Wallace said he urged dialogue to resolve the crisis in eastern Ukraine. A Russian invasion of Ukraine would have "tragic consequences" for both countries, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has warned his counterpart in Moscow. President Biden's virtual meeting with President Putin earlier this week was a start and will be followed up by more talks with other Nato members.

• In addition, the price of gas - which is used to heat greenhouses and to make fertiliser - has soared.









• Hungary has signalled it is ready to compromise on EU funding for Ukraine - after Brussels reportedly prepared to sabotage its economy if it did not comply.









• Prior to Russia's invasion, the Foreign Office had seen a decline in its Russia expertise - despite the government having described the country as "the most acute threat to our security" in the Integrated Review.

All three lead to higher consumer prices, which will mean a reduction in households’ ‘real’ incomes (that is, adjusted for inflation) and therefore consumption, limiting their economic output (GDP). Ukraine is the world’s second biggest exporter of grains and Russia often tops the ranking for wheat exports. Any disruption to flows would quickly ripple through to buyers globally, raising costs for bread and meat. And while commodity prices tend to be only a small proportion of the price of final food products, UK consumers would be likely to see higher prices on supermarket shelves – this could manifest later this year at a time of already high inflation. Soaring energy costs and supply chain disruption caused by Covid have driven inflation to the highest levels in three decades.

• These actions are likely to be felt by individual firms and investors, and potentially some sectors, but their wider impact will not be large relative to, for example, those relating to energy supply.









• Gazprombank, which is part owned by Russian energy giant Gazprom and acts as a key bank for Russia’s energy conglomerates, has so far been excluded from the SWIFT ban.









• It's promising to deploy British forces to eastern European members of the Nato military alliance if Russian troops cross Ukraine's borders.









• Russia might use the crisis to launch cyber and other hybrid attacks on Nato countries.

However, any disruption to the supply of energy to Europe will affect wholesale prices in the UK to a greater extent than implied by direct trade links. UK and European gas prices have moved in tandem in 2022.[9],[10] This is because traders buy gas in the UK to avoid higher prices in Europe then export it to the continent, both reducing UK supply and causing prices to rise in Europe, until the prices equalise. Disruption to Russian gas exports to other European countries would also push up prices in other markets the UK uses, such as Norway, as demand would rise across Europe. However, experts said the conflict in Ukraine – which has triggered a surge in oil and gas prices, as well as renewed supply chain disruption – would hit firms across Europe and drag down industrial production over the coming months. The economic impact of the war will depend on the extent to which the conflict, and therefore the severity of sanctions and economic disruption, escalates and how long it lasts. Below is an outline of how disruption to the trade of energy and commodities could affect the UK and other European economies under three broad scenarios.

Only aircraft deployed to protect energy facilities, or those carrying top Russian or foreign officials, will be allowed to fly with special permission in the designated zones, according to the Vedomosti daily newspaper. "The document referred to in the Financial Times article is a background note written by the secretariat of the council under its own responsibility which describes the current status of the Hungarian economy," the statement by the senior EU official said. Earlier this week, French President Emmanuel Macron said he thought a deal to avoid full-scale war in Ukraine was possible. Mr Wallace states the UK government's position in the minor key compared to the fortissimo of the foreign secretary. Russia has made a series of security proposals, including a demand to rule out Ukraine's membership of the Nato defence alliance. At a news conference on Friday, Mr Wallace said that Russian forces were in a position to invade "at any time", but he had been given security assurances by Mr Shogiu.

Almost 20% of the UK's vegetable product imports come from there, according to UN Comtrade data. At first glance, it appears that the UK will easily be able to weather the economic fallout from the war as neither Russia nor Ukraine are big trading partners. There is also expected to be a considerable jump in the prices we pay at the supermarket and petrol pump. Despite this, Mr Dales still expects the Bank of England to increase interest rates at its meeting on Thursday next week, with the main Bank rate likely to rise from 0.5% to 0.75%. "GDP bounced back from the hit it took in December due to the Omicron wave and is now 0.8% above its pre-pandemic peak," he said. UK households were already facing sharply rising costs before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in part due to soaring energy costs.