Ukraine-war-How-long-can-the-Western-consensus-hold-k

But that gap in coverage is likely to become even more striking the longer the conflict continues, because the factors that make a long war in Ukraine seemingly inevitable are the same ones that make it unlikely to slip from the world’s collective radar. The problems could extend beyond Ukraine, he said, arguing that Europe could face another wave of immigrants from African and Middle Eastern countries previously reliant on grain exports from Ukraine if the war continued to disrupt maritime exports. The statements suggest the west believes Ukraine cannot achieve a rapid military breakthrough despite the anticipated arrival of fresh Nato-standard arms, while officials in the country have continued to call for rapid help. It came as the new head of the British army said British troops must prepare “to fight in Europe once again”.

I think there is a chance that Ukrainians will push forward during the spring if they have integrated the tanks, but they may have to wait until they get the planes. If they get the plane to do the combined arms warfare at which Nato excels and which the Russians simply can’t do and which is a massive force multiplier. It may take a little bit longer, but it takes two sides to end the war. And the question is why would Russia, why would Putin ever agree? I mean, in my opinion, if he gives up Crimea, it will cost him his personal safety, you know, maybe his life, and he may be thrown in jail. Gideon Rachman That was Hein Goemans explaining why he’s interested in war and why he’s gloomy about the prospect that the conflict in Ukraine will end anytime soon.

After a year of war in Ukraine, all signs point to more misery with no end in sight

It’s gonna take a lot of dying and a lot of death and destruction before both sides say, okay, we kind of, we can anticipate what the war is gonna end like and like, and we’re going to accept that and we’re gonna make a deal on that basis. Before we get to the show, I’d like to tell you about a survey we’re conducting to find out more from our listeners about what you think of the show and what you’d like to hear more of. You can find the survey at ft.com/rachmansurvey and we’ll put the link in our show notes. If you complete the survey, you’ll have a chance to win a pair of Bose QuietComfort earbuds. "We declared a special military operation because we had absolutely no other way of explaining to the West that dragging Ukraine into Nato was a criminal act," Mr Lavrov told the BBC. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has also warned of a longer-term conflict.

So here’s an example of why a war should end quickly, but sometimes doesn’t. The Western military alliance chief said that supplying Ukraine with more modern weapons would increase its chances of being able to liberate the country's eastern Donbas region, much of which is currently under Russian control. Russia already controls most of Sievierodonetsk, Haidai said on Sunday morning, and if Ukrainian forces lose the city, fighting is expected to focus on neighbouring Lysychansk, from which 32 residents have been evacuated over the weekend despite heavy shelling. He uses Russia's internal security forces to suppress that opposition. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations.

Escaping the military

I just told you a story about the nuclear demonstration of just testing a bomb and then scaring the west, Trump getting elected. I just read another article in the New York Times about these people who are saying like, “Oh, Ukraine should negotiate and should make some kind of peace deal,” but these people are idiots. Do they think that Putin, after he has been successful and shown that he’s been a great leader, and he won against the mighty Nato alliance and all this force, that he’s gonna stop? How can you possibly believe that is true, particularly if he demonstrates that he can stand up to Nato and the west? How can https://ambitious-camel-g3r4ks.mystrikingly.com/blog/insight-into-news-anchors-sporting-toupees think this guy won’t come back and ask for more?

• For now, at least, Ukraine's allies are standing firmly beside it, saying they will support it "whatever it takes" while Russia too is "nowhere near giving up," Barrons said.









• Democrats in Congress overwhelmingly support aid for Ukraine, and most Republicans do as well.









• But Ukraine's air defenses were surprisingly effective, shooting down many Russian fighter jets and helicopters in the first couple months of the war.

This could see states like Poland and the Baltics decide to aid Ukraine on their own, which "might leave NATO's eastern front vulnerable and cause a crisis within the EU and European NATO". "The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says. Phillips P OBrien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, wrote in an analysis piece that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could see the US "neuter" the Western military alliance. A prominent war expert says the US is on the verge of lessening its support for, or even withdrawing from, NATO - with potentially catastrophic consequences for Europe.

In addition, the Ukrainian government anticipates that it will continue to receive Western military support – and ideally, at even greater volume than now. “Ukraine cannot afford to stop now because it would lose one-fifth of its territory to Russia, including vital Black Sea trading ports, the industrial and mining area of the Donbas, and important tracts of agricultural land. This would make a future Ukrainian state less functional and prosperous,” said Shea, who is also a former deputy assistant secretary-general for emerging security challenges at NATO.

• Another year of war in Europe has undoubtedly drained Western military resources and the political appetite to maintain massive amounts of military aid for Ukraine.









• "Russia can win the war, or the Ukrainians can win the war. And, as you're seeing things now, if you really think about it, what has been achieved this year? Very little has been achieved by Russia, and you can say the same thing for the Ukrainians," he said.









• So if we both know how the war is gonna end and more or less what the outcome is gonna be, then it makes no sense for us to keep on fighting because we’re just throwing away lives, cost.









• I think that Great Britain will stand squarely behind Ukraine and as many people in the west.

The Russians are trying to teach the Ukrainians that the war is gonna be very costly by taking out their infrastructure and just punishing of civilians. And on the other hand is the west, which is telling the Russians this war is gonna be too costly because we have sanctions on you and your complete economy will implode. But back to the Ukrainians, there’s many other kind of examples where states have tried to punish the civilians in the hope to break their will. And in almost all cases, it’s had the opposite effect.

We have no idea what the consequences of this will be long term or even in the near short term.” The biggest unknown is not when this war will end—because it won’t anytime soon—but where. In some ways, Ukraine was already in the midst of a long-running crisis. The country has been engaged in armed conflict with Russia since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, which even before Russia’s invasion last month had resulted in the deaths of more than 14,000 people, many of them civilians. That the war has now escalated beyond the two countries’ de facto border has raised the stakes of the conflict, threatening both Ukraine’s sovereignty and that of its neighbors, many of which are now justifiably asking whether they could be next.

• By October 2022, the picture had changed dramatically and having failed to take Kyiv, Russia withdrew completely from the north.









• "The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says.









• Perhaps more likely is that this develops into a protracted war.









• “Today, tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, they will throw in all the reserves they have … Because there are so many of them there already, they’re at critical mass,” Haidai told Ukrainian television.

When Ukraine retook Robotyne in August it was hoped that its forces would be able to cut the land corridor to Crimea, making Moscow's supply lines more complicated. However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine. Mr Zelenskyy has called for public officials to disclose their incomes to increase transparency and eliminate corruption as Ukraine tries to meet the stringent requirements for its bid to join the European Union. Russia is India's largest arms supplier, but the war in Ukraine has limited Moscow's ability to provide munitions. "A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states," the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and Mr Yermak. Peter Szijjarto has arrived in Ukraine for talks with senior officials today.