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It has delivered artillery, but not the longer-range rocket systems that Ukraine is asking for. Wars often do not end predictably, and a failure to achieve hoped-for victories often leads to a sudden change of government. Ukraine appears very dependent on Volodymyr Zelenskiy in terms of its public diplomacy, but he does not direct its military strategy in detail and the country’s desire to fight runs very deep.

• Senior Ukrainians are still doing their best to manage expectations about the summer offensive.









• The challenge now is training and equipping an armored force big enough and sophisticated enough to envelop Russia’s fighting force.









• The money is coming through and Kyiv is still holding steady, battered and bruised but determined to resist Russian aggression.









• This is not the only major front on which Biden is trying to end a war — and avoid bad headlines in an election year.

However, what was not apparent to Russia until the fighting began is that the Ukrainian people are far more willing to fight than they anticipated. Ukraine's position between Russia to the east and countries such as Poland and Romania to the west means it straddles both the European and Russian spheres of influence. As the scale of the attack became clear, and the Ukrainian military worked to respond, many questioned whether the country would be able to resist the military might of its neighbour.

On the offensive this spring

The money is coming through and Kyiv is still holding steady, battered and bruised but determined to resist Russian aggression. Putin can’t keep his forces on the offensive all year long and now has to keep an eye out for new Ukrainian strikes on assets not only in Crimea (such as the recent hit on a large landing ship in the Black Sea port of Feodosia in occupied Crimea) but also in Russia proper. Having to rely on Donald Trump both winning the November US election (the next major landmark event) and then doing what he wants is not wholly comfortable. There was, for example, a thread of continuity between the first and second world wars. To be sure, a lot happened in the intervening years that could have changed the direction of what followed.

• The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya.









• “President Biden has been very clear that NATO will be in Ukraine’s future,” said Kirby.









• We asked several military analysts how they think events on the ground will unfold in 2023.









• Because it would be hard to reverse after ratification by 32 NATO member parliaments, NATO accession — ideally by the end of 2024 — would also frustrate Putin’s plan to draw out the war until political winds in the West change.









• The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw the return of major war to the European continent.

For now, such cracks in the West are contained by the mantra that the future is for Ukrainians to decide. Yet Ukraine’s choices are in turn shaped by what the West will provide. We are as strong as you are united,” Mr Zelensky told a meeting at Davos.

Why Putin won’t back down

The main reason for the assessment that it suits Putin to hang in there is that over time western support for Ukraine will drift away. Indeed, Putin was quite explicit about this in his press conference of 14 December. Ukraine has been unable to put itself in a position to force a decision on Russia. But even if https://telegra.ph/Exploring-the-Good-News-Within-the-Bible-04-17 had made more progress it would have been a tall order to put the Russians sufficiently in a corner that their choice was only between battlefield humiliation and a negotiated withdrawal. We also need to keep in mind that there have been some successes, including pushing back the Black Sea Fleet through the effective use of naval drones.

• These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes.









• Meanwhile, heavy fighting is taking place in and around Severodonetsk, as Russian forces step up efforts to seize the whole of the Luhansk region.









• America has rallied military donations from more than 40 other countries.









• At different times in this conflict Russia has resembled Iran’s position, and Ukraine has mirrored Iraq’s in that war — if only incompletely — said Jeremy Morris, professor of global studies at Aarhus University in Denmark.









• Despite desperate pleas from Kyiv for the West to come to its aid, Nato has categorically ruled out sending troops to Ukraine.

But it noted that US officials had said they were unaware of any such proposals and that they had no sign that the Russian president was serious about looking to bring his forces' invasion of Ukraine to a close. Commenting on an ongoing war is difficult, especially for someone not close to the front lines. This is why, as I noted in last year’s assessment, my preference is “to talk about trends, possibilities, and developments coming into view.” Wars pass through stages, as fortunes shift, and the challenges of supply and reinforcement change. Over time some possibilities become impossible, some quite likely, and new ones emerge. Of these the most unlikely, such as peace negotiations, can be worth discussing to understand why they are unlikely or what would need to change to make them likely.

Many were so badly beaten and abused in detention that this acted as a major deterrent to further protest. Resistance has already begun, with a nationwide call-up of men of fighting age and 18,000 automatic weapons being handed out to the citizens of Kyiv, in addition to the uniformed army and reserves who are already putting up stiff resistance. "In the short term," says Brig Ben Barry from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, "a successful Russian seizure of Kyiv would be a military and political success with strategic impact. President Putin has clearly spent months closeted in isolation, studying his defence chiefs' plans to take over his West-leaning Slavic neighbour and bring it back into Moscow's orbit.

The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington told Defense News that Ukraine would not strike Russian territory with longer-range weapons pledged by the United States. Blumenthal has joined other lawmakers — particularly pro-Ukraine Republicans — in pushing President Joe Biden to give Zelenskyy most of the weapons he requested, including long-range ATACMS missiles and F-16 fighter aircraft. Army’s maneuver warfare school at Fort Benning, Georgia, said Western upgrades offer Ukraine the chance to dominate the close fight with Russian adversaries and conclude the tactical fighting to its advantage. Also in the mix is a pledge from France to ship AMX-10 RC light, wheeled tanks. But this winter, they’re expected to launch attacks across open plains, which would be harder to defeat, said Daniel Rice, a former U.S.

"This is a tripwire that would trigger the might of all Nato, including the US, UK and France." Nato defence chiefs have re-examined his lengthy speech of July 2021 and concluded they urgently need to reinforce Nato's eastern borders lest Putin is tempted to make a move on countries like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Eastern European countries, who fear they may be next in Putin's sights, are watching nervously for any Russian manoeuvres close to their borders. Kusti Salm, the permanent secretary at Estonia's Ministry of Defence, is one of those pushing for more military assistance to Ukraine. "But it might not destroy the Ukrainian government - provided it has made plans to set up a new government HQ, most likely in the western part of the country."