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When I combine that with an analysis of Russia’s operational ease, I think the most reasonable thing that we could be expecting right now is regime change in Kyiv. I’ll tell you how my expectations of this conflict have evolved. I’m very much on record for saying that I thought Putin would invade.

• The fog of war can obscure our view of who is winning, who is losing, and how long all of this will last.









• Watch how the rest of the world regards the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions.









• Its military supply system proved shockingly inept, whether for repairing equipment or delivering food, water, and medical supplies to the front.









• These are the sort of outcomes that could follow on from a decisive Russian military victory.









• Russia would not annex the “republics” it created in the Donbas in 2014 and would withdraw from some of the additional land it’s seized there.

Ideally, the two sides do this based upon their relative probabilities of winning a hypothetical war. The suffering and destruction in Ukraine and the economic turmoil the war has produced in the West should be compelling enough reasons to end it. Ditto the devastation it continues to create in some of the world’s poorest countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen. Along with devastating droughts and local conflicts, it has led to staggering increases in the price of basic foods (with both Ukrainian and Russian grains, to one degree or another, blocked from the market). More than 27 million people are already facing acute food shortages or outright starvation in those four nations alone, thanks at least in part to the conflict in Ukraine.

Kherson's underground resistance: How ordinary people fought Russia from the shadows

Ukraine will probably try to exploit the success it has had in re-establishing its control over the western Black Sea and its vital trade corridor to the Bosphorus. https://gilliam-albrechtsen-4.technetbloggers.de/unveiling-the-impact-of-fairness-bias-on-news-reporting is held hostage by what President Biden rightly labelled "petty politics" in Washington. And the future of the EU's economic aid is seemingly dependent on Hungary's incongruous stance. Meanwhile, Indian thinktank Observer Research Foundation's Russia expert, Nandan Unnikrishnan, said India was unlikely to sign "any major military deal" with Russia because it would cross a red line with the US.

I thought that he would take small slices of territory in eastern Ukraine. I had to update over the past week, as I heard his rhetoric, saw this large mobilization, and realized this was going to be a large invasion. Still, even this outcome where Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy and NATO is faced with an improved security situation could be "fraught with danger," the analysts warned. Analysts of course agree that an unequivocal withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Ukraine would be best possible outcome for the country in its dire situation. Such a situation is a tinderbox in Europe, Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group's president, said in emailed comments Monday.

Leadership change

I have a good, safe life and follow events there from the comfort of my New York apartment. The lives of millions of people who live in or fled the war zone have been shattered. In addition, nearly 13 million Ukrainians (including nearly two-thirds of all its children) are either displaced in their own country or refugees in various parts of Europe, mainly Poland. Millions of lives, in other words, have been turned inside out, while a return to anything resembling normalcy now seems beyond reach. One reason that countries such as Germany have been reluctant to send heavier weapons to the Ukrainians is that Berlin does not want to give Putin any pretext for escalation.

If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv was already an active NATO partner, sending a handful of troops to Afghanistan during the alliance’s mission in the country. "Revenge" could take the form of cyber attacks - something the National Cyber Security Centre has already warned about. Often hard to attribute, these could target banks, businesses, individuals and even critical national infrastructure.

Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables." That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West. The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand.

• With daily events keeping us both absorbed and distraught, it remains difficult to look beyond the horizon and imagine how the war in Ukraine might end.









• There seems to be some degree of sensitivity in Ukraine to Russia's claims it's waging a proxy war with the West over Ukraine.









• WASHINGTON and ROME — Germany’s promise early this year to send tanks to Ukraine marked the country’s latest concession and provided a cap to the gradual escalation in the kind of equipment allies were supplying.









• The first - which would be the most optimistic from Kyiv’s perspective - is that Ukrainian forces successfully move towards Mariupol on the Black Sea coast, cutting off Russian forces from the southern part of the country.

And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus. But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. The Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources of course, especially artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons.

• People often accuse Putin of wanting to resurrect the Soviet Union.









• “Essentially once the West made a decision that Ukraine is important … it had to support them to the end, and that means the Ukrainians are the ones who will decide when they’re going to stop,” he said.









• The old Cold War maxim of "MAD" - Mutually Assured Destruction - still applies.









• It's promising to deploy British forces to eastern European members of the Nato military alliance if Russian troops cross Ukraine's borders.

The war in Ukraine conjures up a strong sense of historical déjà vu. Though recorded in 21st-century fashion through up-close-and-personal shots from mobile phone cameras and high-definition drone footage, the images being captured – of artillery duels and trench warfare – have a distinctly last-century feel to them. Yet when we try to envisage a peace agreement, no plausible scenario emerges. Now is the time to imagine what a future ceasefire will look like. Ukraine is a democratic country aggressively pursuing European integration.